Purchasing and supply professionals - two scenarios

In 'Work in the Knowledge Driven Economy' (Future Unit,1999) the Future Unit of the Department of Trade and Industry developed two scenarios for futures in which rapid economic growth is driven by fast communications and knowledge-based business. The Expert Group's view of the future, as this study shows, is that these technologies will be the main engines of growth over the next ten years. Therefore the Expert Group's predictions on the future tasks of senior purchasing and supply managers could usefully be tested against the Future Unit's scenarios. This revealed implications that go beyond the scope of procurement and show how the findings of this report could be affected by changes in society and the structure of organisations.

For a complete treatment of these scenarios readers should refer to the Future Unit's publication. We have used only a few features that are relevant to this study and the interpretation is that of PSL alone. The two scenarios are termed 'Wired World' and 'Built to Last'. Short summaries of the main feature of each are given below:

'Wired World is comprised of a network of economic agents coming together, via secure and efficient Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on a project-by-project basis, held together by a web of contracts. Thus self-employment and portfolio working are common and small, innovative and responsive businesses have become the dominant force in the economy over large, established companies;
'Built to Last starts from the basis that if knowledge is the principal source of competitive advantage then it will be in the interest of business to capture and internalise that knowledge. This can be done by offering comprehensive remuneration packages to retain the individuals in whom knowledge is vested. Consequently, we see an economic landscape dominated by stable and often large companies and extended families of companies. Self-employment and temporary contract work are therefore rare.' (Future Unit, DTI, 1999)

From a common starting point, of the importance of ICT for success in the future, two contrasting pictures of that future have been drawn. However a mixture or intermediate situation is also possible and, perhaps, more to be expected.

Vision 2010 shows that the relationships between business customers, suppliers and competitors will become more complex in the future. Competition will intensify and globalisation will increase, driving the formation of alliances. Because of these factors the task of procurement will become more involved. Complicated relationships will have to be negotiated and managed and a wider variety of business processes measured and monitored (see 'People and the organisation'). To achieve success these activities will require highly trained professionals with up-to-date knowledge of technologies and techniques.

In the 'Built to Last' scenario companies will invest heavily in training their workforce in order to maintain a competitive advantage. It is likely, however, that all but the very largest will use independent training providers in order to profit from the most up-to-date ideas. Encouraging procurement professionals to study for internationally recognised qualifications, such as those provided by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS), will continue to be good training, an essential element of professional development and a valuable part of incentives packages.

In 'Wired World' fewer companies will be large enough to support lifelong learning for their employees. The large amount of self- and contract employment, the short timescales of projects and the widespread use of virtual companies will mean that professionals, including those offering their services in the procurement and relationship management fields, will have to provide for their own continuing education. Membership of professional bodies and professional qualifications will be essential to demonstrate one's competence to the market place and generate the wide network of contacts necessary to find and secure work on the next project. Frequent up-dates would be necessary to provide the adaptable mix of skills required in this scenario.

So the two scenarios reach the same conclusions for the highly skilled relationship manager of the future - the need for lifelong education and the importance of internationally-recognised training providers. This is despite the two scenarios postulating the dominance of very different forms of organisational structure.

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